000
ABNT20 KNHC 111715
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, extending from these
islands southwestward into the eastern Tropical Atlantic.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some
development of this system over the next day or two before
upper-level winds become too strong for any further development by
midweek. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected over the next few
days for portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves
slowly northward to north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Evans/Papin
...FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM ISAIAS IS DECREASING BUT SOME RISK CONTINUES TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 the center of Isaias was located near 37.5, -84.0 with movement ENE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 25 mph.
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026000 WTNT24 KWNH 111459 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL092026 1500 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 84.0W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 84.0W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 84.8W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 38.8N 80.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N 84.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER CHENARD
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026000 WTNT44 KWNH 111500 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Discussion Number 20 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL092026 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026 Key Messages: 1. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue across portions of the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today, with localized flash and urban flooding possible. River flooding continues in western North Carolina. 2. Swells from Isaias will continue to affect much of the Gulf and Southeastern Atlantic coasts of the United States today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 3. A couple of tornadoes are possible today across the Piedmont and Coastal Plain of Virginia and North Carolina. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 37.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 12H 12/0000Z 38.8N 80.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Chenard