MD 1604 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 1604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Areas affected...portions of Central and South Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121914Z - 122115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Some risk for isolated damaging wind gusts is spreading
southward into Central Florida. A conditional risk for isolated
damaging wind gusts and large hail exists farther south across South
Florida.
DISCUSSION...An ongoing cluster of loosely organized thunderstorms
has continued to spread southward across portions of Central Florida
over the past 1-2 hours and has recently produced a measured 41 mph
wind gust in the vicinity of Titusville along the Atlantic Coast.
Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, the environment south of this
convection remains favorable for isolated damaging wind gusts, with
steep low-level lapse rates, rich moisture, and moderate to strong
instability in place.
Farther south, a developing Cu field is noted across South Florida.
Latest high-res guidance continues to suggest that an isolated storm
or two may develop along the sea breeze over the next couple of
hours. Locally greater moisture and buoyancy are noted across this
area, with up to 3500 J/kg MLCAPE depicted by objective analysis.
Coupled with cooler mid-level temperatures and steeper mid-level
lapse rates (-9.5 C at 500 mb and 7-7.5 C/km, respectively, sampled
by the 12z MFL observed sounding) compared to areas farther north,
this would support a conditional threat for isolated damaging wind
gusts and large hail (perhaps to half-dollar size) with any storm
that does form in this environment.
Given the isolated nature of these threats, watch issuance appears
unlikely at this time.
..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 25728005 25618044 25628104 25818171 26398217 26948251
27708284 28078270 28508217 28788128 28808076 28678050
28328039 27858030 27137997 26767987 26147992 25728005
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 1603 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1603
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Areas affected...portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the
Southeast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121752Z - 121945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to occasionally severe
thunderstorms may bring a low probability risk for localized
damaging downburst wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...Increasingly agitated cumulus, and a few isolated
thunderstorms, were evident on visible satellite and regional radar
imagery across the lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the
Southeast/Gulf Coast as of 1750 UTC. This activity is located within
a warm and moist low-level air mass to the south of a surface
frontal boundary. Aided by forcing for ascent ahead of a mid-level
shortwave trough, convection is forecast to increase in coverage
over the next several hours, with the greatest coverage likely to
occur where any consolidated cold pools intersect the
inland-progressing sea breeze later this afternoon/evening. Slightly
cooler surface temperatures should yield marginally weaker low-level
lapse rates (relative to areas farther east); however, localized
damaging downburst winds may still occur given PW near 2 inches
across the region. This threat is expected to remain too isolated to
warrant watch issuance.
..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 31709145 32139148 32539144 32829129 33029100 33109032
33208924 33298849 33408755 33538649 33668560 33758476
33828427 33668383 33388369 32928362 32568374 32348398
32178434 32038502 31818562 31678617 31428667 31018714
30678752 30438801 30368838 30388874 30488929 30769030
31099105 31379138 31709145
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more
MD 1602 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1602
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121750Z - 121945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorms will spread across portions of
the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and northern parts of Lake Michigan
over the next few hours. Isolated large hail and gusty winds are
possible with this activity, though watch issuance is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Additional thunderstorms have been showing some
intensification over Lake Superior as they approach central portions
of the U.P. This activity is occurring within an area of enhanced
effective shear focused mainly north of the international border.
Objective analysis indicates weak capping persists across the
region. However, a weak to moderate MUCAPE gradient is oriented
across the U.P. and will support continued southward storm
development. Vertical shear weakens with southward extent so
stronger/better organized convection may be short-lived, with storms
gradually weakening as they shift southward across central portions
of the U.P. before dissipating near northern Lake Michigan. Given
isolated coverage and small spatial extent of the overall severe
risk, a watch is not currently expected.
..Leitman/Smith.. 07/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...
LAT...LON 47588653 46608551 45778573 45318654 45538710 45998741
46588754 47298738 47448715 47548675 47588653
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 1601 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1601
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Areas affected...portions of eastern Georgia into much of South
Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 121724Z - 121930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next 1-2
hours across portions of Georgia and South Carolina, bringing a
threat for damaging wind gusts. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may
eventually be needed.
DISCUSSION...A hot, humid air mass remains in place across much of
the Southeast, with temperatures noted to have already warmed into
the low/mid 90s across portions of eastern Georgia and
southern/central South Carolina as of 1720 UTC. Visible satellite
imagery depicts increasingly agitated cumulus across the region,
with developing thunderstorms noted south and east of the Atlanta
Metro. Continued heating of this air mass will promote further
destabilization through the afternoon to around 2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE and increasing convective coverage over the next couple of
hours. Weak deep-layer flow and effective shear suggest a relatively
disorganized, outflow-dominant storm mode, but steepening low-level
lapse rates and PW content near 2 inches will facilitate a risk for
damaging wind gusts (with gusts up to around 60 mph possible) across
the region. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed to cover this
potential within the next 1-2 hours.
..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/12/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 31108148 31208198 31558281 32228339 33018366 33218367
33718370 34098354 34338330 34488288 34648187 34578083
34308014 33917962 33567927 33227913 33087918 32577979
32128051 31768094 31188117 31108148
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more