840
FXUS64 KHGX 121957
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
257 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Flood Watch is in effect through early Monday morning for
portions of the Brazos Valley where slow-moving, training
thunderstorms are expected to develop. A few instances of flash
flooding will be possible.
- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
strong winds, hail, and localized downpours will be possible
through this evening.
- Increasingly summer-like weather by the second half the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have moved into SE Texas as a
weak upper level disturbance moves overhead. Isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms will remain possible through this evening.
Damaging wind gusts and hail remain to be the primary concerns
with regards to severe thunderstorms, but a brief, isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out. The primary impact from the
thunderstorms today will be the potential for locally heavy
rainfall leading to a few instances of flash flooding as the
storms will be slow-moving and potentially train over the same
areas. Rainfall rates of 3-4" per hour have already been reported
in areas to our west, and these rainfall rates will remain
possible as the storms enter into SE Texas. 1-hr and 3-hr FFG
across the area is generally 2-4", so the chance for flash
flooding will be there for any slow-moving downpours. A Flood
Watch has been issued this afternoon through early Monday morning
for Burleson, Brazos, Madison, Grimes, Washington, Austin, and
Colorado counties. Generally expecting up to 1-3" of rain for most
areas along and north of I-10, but locally higher amounts of
3-6"+ will be possible within the Watch area. Locally higher
amounts will still be possible outside the Watch area, but the
chances are greater within the Watch. Coverage of the showers and
thunderstorms will begin to wane late this evening, but isolated
showers and thunderstorms will linger into the overnight hours
before this event ends.
Overall the remainder of the week looks to be mostly rainfree, but
weak shortwaves embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft will lead
to continued slight rain chances through midweek for our northern
zones. The best dynamics for thunderstorms will be northwest of
our region, but may see some storms skirt the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods region. Otherwise, moist onshore flow and daytime
heating could lead to isolated afternoon streamer showers by the
end of the week.
Speaking of daytime heating, we will be on the warming trend
through the week thanks to that southwesterly flow aloft and
southerly flow at the surface. High temperatures will rise into
the low 80s on Monday, mid-80s on Tuesday, then upper 80s by
Thursday (with some isolated areas potentially hitting the 90
degree mark).
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
CIGs are anticipated to remain around MVFR levels early this
morning as light showers develop over the region. Maintaining a
wide timing window for thunderstorms today given the differences
between wx models and uncertainty present. Still, the bulk of
guidance suggests better thunderstorm chances/coverage north of
the Houston Metro area today while areas further south have more
sparse coverage for showers/storms. Could see some areas scatter
out to VFR FLs for some time during the afternoon, though this
too is contingent of shower/storm coverage, thus VFR appears more
feasible at KIAH and southward. Rain chances decrease tonight with
CIGs lowering once again to MVFR-IFR levels overnight.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Small craft should continue to exercise caution through Monday
morning as moderate southeasterly winds continue (around 15kt with
gusts to 20kt) and seas around 4-6ft. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible through this evening, but the
majority of this activity will remain inland.
Light to moderate onshore flow will prevail through the remainder
of the week with 3-5ft seas and low rain chances. This persistent
onshore flow will lead to elevated tides (high tides around
2.5-3.0ft above MLLW) and moderate to strong rip currents through
most of this week.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 83 68 85 / 60 20 0 0
Houston (IAH) 71 83 70 85 / 30 20 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 72 78 72 79 / 20 10 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Monday morning for TXZ176-195>198-210-211.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Monday morning for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Fowler
NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion